Premier League 2015-16 preview No7: Leicester City

  

Guardian writers’ predicted position: 19th (NB: this is not necessarily Paul Doyle’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 14th

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 2,500-1

Towards the end of last season, in what sounds like what could happen if you left children unattended around a range of domestic washing products, Leicester City played with zest and pizzazz. And there was surely no better place to be in the final weeks of the campaign than the King Power stadium, where players, management and fans seemed in loud and rapturous union as the Foxes sensationally swaggered to Premier League survival. Nigel Pearson’s side had endured low points and weird sideshows but they ended up as the feelgood story of the season. Everyone loved Leicester. Only something really dumb or despicable could chase the giddy vibes from the place. Then something really dumb and despicable happened.

A goodwill tour to the country of a club’s owner can be definitively said to have backfired when it ends amid headlines about a “racist orgy”. And if the manager’s son is one of three players jilted in the aftermath, then the manager is in a dicey position. Exactly what unfolded between Pearson and his Thai employers during those troubled weeks in June has not yet been disclosed, but the month concluded with the Leicester board declaring their relationship with Pearson, which had previously frayed, to be “no longer viable” and beginning their search for a new manager. Many fans were saddened. Two weeks laterClaudio Ranieri was appointed. Many fans were further saddened. It will be hard for Ranieri to cheer them up.

Ranieri’s first task is to win hearts and minds, mainly of players. Pearson may have been uncomfortable with the media but he evidently forged a close bond with his players; team spirit stayed high even when Leicester sank to the bottom of the league because of two epic winless streaks, one of 13 matches between late September and Boxing Day, and one of eight matches between late January and mid-March. If the players had not believed they were generally on the right track, they would never have been able to recover and surge to safety by winning seven of their last nine games. Ranieri must retain that unity. At least the fixture list has given him a benign start, as Leicester begin with a home game against Sunderland and then face West Ham, Spurs, Bournemouth and Aston Villa.

Suggestions that Ranieri’s “Tinkerman” tendencies could irritate players may be ill-founded: Leicester have a big squad and their players are accustomed to rotation, as Pearson tinkered plenty last season, albeit around a few stalwarts.

Pearson did, however, settle on a formation for last term’s successful escape and the signs in pre-season are Ranieri intends sticking with the three-man central defence that served his predecessor so well. Wes Morgan and Marcin Wasilewski are valiant but the key man in that defence is Robert Huth, who became integral to Leicester’s survival after signing from Stoke in January, even though they still finished with a worse defensive record than two of the three relegated teams. The German can be expected to remain solid. The Austria international Christian Fuchs, who originally seemed to have been signed in the summer to replace Jeff Schlupp as a wing-back, may instead be deployed as a left-sided centre-back now that the Ghana international has agreed a new contract. Wasilewski, having just turned 35, may feature less.

While Huth was the main influence at the back, the chief conductor at Leicester last season was undoubtedly Esteban Cambiasso. His departure threatens to prove more ruinous than Pearson’s. Statistics do not convey the full extent of the Argentinian’s impact even if they show he made more passes than any other Leicester player last term: it was where and when he played those passes that mattered, his astuteness and dynamism keeping the team going in the right direction, just as his positioning, tackling and cajoling did. He ensured Leicester retained an intelligent balance even when they attacked with near-abandon. Ranieri has yet to sign a replacement. Finding one will be tough.

So there is a void in the heart of Leicester’s midfield, compounded by the fact Matty James will be out injured at least until the new year. Danny Drinkwater, Andy King and Dean Hammond are all decent but none look capable of doing what Cambiasso did. Nor do they seem especially well suited to playing the slightly more possession-based style Ranieri, while stressing he does not intend making major changes, has hinted at introducing within Pearson’s familiar formation.

It will also be interesting to see whether that style suits players who thrived when leading rapid counterattacks – such as Jamie Vardy, whose jagged directnessearned him an England cap, or Marc Albrighton, who, after being overlooked for months by Pearson, emerged as a rampant menace down the right towards the end (and provided welcome accuracy from set pieces). Riyad Mahrez will likely prosper in any system, the Algerian winger’s speed and trickery making him a delightful arm for Leicester last season and one who should flourish even more consistently on the back of a successful first full season in England and in a campaign uninterrupted by an international tournament.

But with Cambiasso gone and the manager seemingly contemplating a gradual style evolution, it seems likely Leicester will venture into the transfer market again before the window closes, even if the new manager has pledged to give more opportunities to the club’s young players, an ambition he signposted further by making his 21-year-old striker, Tom Lawrence, captain for the recent friendly against Mansfield Town.

Leicester have lots of strikers and it will be interesting to see whom Ranieri regards as his first-choice pairing. None were prolific last season, with Leonardo Ulloa suffering a drought before ending with a league tally of 11. Vardy scored only five but, on the flip side, unhinged many defences with his relentless movement and bustling. The January recruit, Andrej Kramaric, showed flickers of high class but has mostly failed to shine so far, while the £7m summer signing, the Japan international Shinji Okazaki, offers Vardy-esque dynamism and an international scoring record that suggests he is sharp.

But the fact Leicester bid £12m for Charlie Austin this summer indicates they may still be seeking a striker with a proven ability to hit a high double-figure tally in the Premier League. Find that and a way of compensating for the departure of Cambiasso, and Ranieri could take Leicester higher than Pearson. Otherwise he may have to repeat his predecessor’s escapology.