With the first Euro 2016 match set to take place on Friday, 10 June, this seemed like an appropriate time to offer some analysis of how the tournament might play out. Below are my (rough) predictions for the final four, golden boot winner and player of the tournament.
Semi-finalists: Germany, France, Italy, Belgium
Germany
First off, I will start with the team that I assume our readers are the most familiar with. Germany, two years after their memorable triumph at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, enter Euro 2016 as one of the favourites. Their roster boasts an impressive blend of talent and experience. Players like Bastian Schweinsteiger and Thomas Müller will be keen to add the Henri Delaunay Trophy, one of the only major prizes to have still eluded them, to their collection.
Still, Germany are not without weaknesses.
The striker position, which still relied on contributions from the now-retired Miroslav Klose in 2014, is a cause for concern. Mario Gómez is coming off of a fantastic season in Turkey, but if he misfires, what is Joachim Löw’s backup plan?
Additionally, the defense is vulnerable, especially on the flanks. The return of Jérôme Boateng in April was certainly a boost, but his partner Mats Hummels faces a race to be fit in time for the tournament. The in-form Antonio Rüdiger suffered an ACL tear in training.
Coupled with the loss of the legendary Philipp Lahm to international retirement, opponents will rightfully believe that there are opportunities to be found against the Germans.
France
Next, a pick that is high-risk, high-reward. French players have enjoyed great success at the club level. Young players such as Paul Pogba, Antoine Griezmann, and Bayern’s very own Kingsley Coman have emerged as legitimate stars and the leaders of a new generation. Coupled with an already solid infrastructure and corps of veteran players, the infusion of talented youth could be enough to propel France to glory.
As the tournament’s hosts, the French are certainly under immense pressure. Perhaps Didier Deschamps will prove that he is indeed the right man for the job, harnessing that energy and channeling it into a run to the final.
It seems equally likely, though, that France could collapse. With the weight of high expectations and national pride on their young shoulders, Les Bleus could easily resort to infighting and blame-shifting. While I see them as strong contenders to win the tournament, I would not be surprised to see them exit in the round of 16 if paired against a difficult opponent, such as Poland, Croatia, Belgium or Italy.
Italy
To be honest, I made this pick based mainly on superstition. The Italians have some sort of voodoo football magic in their blood which guarantees that they will play well in almost every tournament. After a disappointing showing in Brazil in 2014, I could not bring myself to bet on Italy having two poor tournaments in a row.
There are legitimate reasons to believe that Italy could surprise analysts. Though their squad lacks the top level talent of players like Francesco Totti, Alessandro Del Piero, and other aging legends, they can rely on a strong defensive base. Speaking of legends, Gianluigi Buffon will provide effective goalkeeping behind an experienced and capable back line.
In attack, it would only take one of the streaky Stephan El Shaarawy, Lorenzo Insigne, or Simone Zaza gaining a run of goalscoring form to propel them through the knockout rounds.
Belgium
I considered picking Spain for this final semi-final spot, but any team that brings Fernando Torres as its only real striker is in trouble. Instead, it may finally be time for the long-talented Red Devils to turn their promise into success on the international stage.
Sure, they got to the quarter-finals of the 2014 World Cup, but they beat a poor USA side in the round of 16 and were promptly dispatched by a much better Argentina. Now, with two more years under their collective belts, Euro 2016 feels like the perfect opportunity for a run to the late knockout rounds.
Vincent Kompany is (shockingly) unfit to play, and that is truly a blow for a side which could have used his defensive solidity and leadership. However, Toby Alderweireld is fresh off of a breakthrough campaign at Tottenham, and should marshal the defense nicely.
In attack, manager Marc Wilmots will be hoping that the signs of life which Eden Hazard showed at the end of Chelsea’s season continue, as the mercurial winger is certainly talented enough to put the team on his back and will them into the latter stages of the tournament.
Top scorer: Antoine Griezmann
The Atlético Madrid man is in the form of his life. After scoring 32 goals in all competitions, including the strike at the Allianz which sent Bayern out in the Champions League semi-finals. Now, having recently signed a new five-year deal with Atleti, the Frenchman turns his attention to the Euros.
Though Didier Deschamps may experiment with Griezmann on the wing, incorporating the play of a more traditional strike like Olivier Giroud, I believe that Antoine belongs as a number nine. His lethal speed and reliable finishing could make for some beautiful interplay with other French attackers like Anthony Martial, Coman, and Paul Pogba from midfield.
Player of the tournament: Thomas Müller
He may not score the most goals, but I expect Müller to contribute more than anyone else. His unique ability to contribute in all phases of play (finishing, passing, willing running and defensive work) is incredibly valuable to Germany. Coming off of a spectacular individual season at Bayern, Thomas is perfectly poised to assert himself as Die Mannschaft‘s best player and lead them to Euro glory.
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