Your Guide to Brasileirão 2016

by Jack Lang

It seems like only yesterday that we were ushering the 2015 Brasileirão into the sweet hereafter, yet here we are, plunging headlong towards the watering hole once more.  

The tears in my eyes? Nothing but condensation. We go again. 

Talking logistics 

Pub quiz question: what is the opposite of joy? Yes, exactly right. It's the Brazilian football calendar!  

If you're new to this column or the Brazilian game more generally, here's what you need to know: come mid-May, the country's biggest clubs have already spent four months grinding away in low-wattage local championships, often in front of crowds numbering in the hundreds, while simultaneously trying to build a squad and juggling a cup competition or two.  

Those still in the Copa Libertadores - São Paulo and Atlético Mineiro at present - will now rest their players for the early rounds of the national championship; and as the Copa do Brasil progresses, others will follow suit. Série A thus starts off messy, gets messier still when all the best players leave during Europe's transfer window, and ends in a manic two-games-a-week crescendo that leaves everyone breathless. 

Cool, huh? Well this year things will be even more fraught: there is the small matter of the Centenary Copa América slap-bang in the middle of the season, meaning a host of sides will lose their stars. Oh, and there’s also the Olympic football tournament, which will divert attention and resources. Fun! 

At least there is a concession to simplicity in the geography this season: with no Goiás, who were relegated in 2015, there are no trips into Brazil's central plains. That will come as a slight relief to the clubs from Recife in the north and Porto Alegre in the south, even if they do still face a couple of 6000km round trips along the coast. 

Likely title challengers 

The Brasileirão tends to make fools of those obliged to make hard-and-fast predictions; this is a balanced league and the scope for reversals of fortunes midway through the campaign is huge. Yet it falls on your columnist to stick his head above the parapet, so here goes nothing... 

Atlético Mineiro have been going along nicely in the Libertadores and have a relatively settled side, plus the explosive attacking talents of Lucas Pratto, who netted 13 goals and fired 3.1 shots per game in 2015, and Robinho. They finished second last time out and have not been significantly weakened. 

The same cannot be said of Corinthians. The Timão were imperious last season, scoring the most goals (71), conceding the fewest (31), boasting the best disciplinary record (64 yellows, 2 reds) and keeping 17 clean sheets. But they have lost Renato Augusto, Jádson, Gil, Vágner Love and Malcom - together responsible for 39 of their league goals. They could still compete if genial coach Tite sticks around, but it seems increasingly likely Brazil will come calling at some stage. 

Santos look set to benefit from continuity. They have been very impressive since Dorival Júnior arrived back at the club 10 months ago, adopting a more attractive passing game. They have clung on to the visionary Lucas Lima - whose average WhoScored Rating was a league-high 7.45 in 2015 - but both he and veteran hitman Ricardo Oliveira - the Série A top scorer with 20 goals last time out - will be involved with the Seleção and the squad is not as deep as it could be. 

Those three aside, the most likely challengers appear to be Grêmio and São Paulo. The former came up short last year, but have some thrilling youngsters and a coach, Roger Machado, who is admirably committed to playing attractive football. SPFC, meanwhile, have stumbled on some momentum after a shoddy start to the year and might just be able to spring a surprise if the reborn Paulo Henrique Ganso gets the right support in attack. 

Treading water 

What of the rest of Brazil’s so-called giants? Fluminense are getting used to life without their primary bankroll sponsor and lost their big winter signing, Diego Souza, just a few weeks after signing him. Rio rivals Flamengohave plenty of firepower and, in Muricy Ramalho, have a coach with title-winning experience, yet continue to underperform. 

Internacional could be top-four contenders if recent results are anything to go by, although they tend to go a bit flaky when Série A rolls around. Palmeiras are slowly getting back to an even footing under coach Cuca after signing some 900 players in the last couple of years, while Cruzeiro are hoping the arrival of ex-Portugal boss Paulo Bento arrests their slide. 

Survivor series 

The battle for survival could be even more absorbing than last year’s free-for-all, even if a couple of the remaining 10 clubs will probably gatecrash the top half. Last term it was Sport and Atlético-PR who pulled up trees, but they might struggle to repeat the trick in 2016. 

Ponte Preta, Chapecoense, Figueirense and Coritiba are all experienced campaigners in this fight and will be well aware that the four newly-promoted sides - Botafogo, América-MG, Santa Cruz, Vitória - are no slouches. At the bottom, much as at the top, things are wide open.