segunda-feira, 19 de setembro de 2016

Russia and the Hunt for the Third Champions League Spot

Resultado de imagem para flag russia

BY 

Before this season started, Russia were ranked seventh in UEFA’s Country Ranking, which granted them two Champions League spots, occupied by CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov, and three Europa League spots, occupied by FC Krasnodar, Spartak Moscow and Zenit St. Petersburg. Since then however, Russia have taken some significant jumps up the rankings, and they are currently the second best performing country in the top 10, and the sixth best performing overall (the countries whose clubs go through the early rounds of qualification earns more points in the beginning, which is why Denmark, Croatia, Austria and Israel occupy the first four places at the moment).

Source: Bert Kassies
Four out of the five Russian teams managed to reach the group stage, and they have started relatively well. Two victories, a draw and a defeat were the results delivered by the Russian contesters in European competitions last week.
Due to these good performances, Russia are currently sitting sixth in the ranking, which grants another Champions League spot for the 2018/2019 season if kept. As seen on the table below, Russia even has the chance of reaching the fifth place, which would be the highest position in the history of the country, and provide the Russian teams with even better seeding for the qualification.

Source: Bert Kassies
What makes this realistic is that the UEFA Country Ranking is based on the performances of the last five seasons, meaning that both France and Portugal lose their point-wise best seasons, while Russia lose their second-worst. This means that Russia can even afford to lose a point to the French and Portuguese teams and still win fifth place.
France do of course have the advantage of having five clubs in Europe, Monaco, Lyon and PSG in the Champions League and St. Etienne and Nice in the Europa League, at this stage compared to the four of Russia and Portugal.
Still a long road ahead
While things are certainly looking good for Russia at this point, there is still a long road ahead. The biggest problem is the danger of Rostov finishing last in their challenging Champions League group, leaving a lot of pressure on CSKA, Zenit and FC Krasnodar to achieve beyond the already high expectations. As expressed by the majority of the RFN writers in both the recent round table on the expectations to the Russian clubs in Europe and in the latest issue of the RFN Podcast, Zenit has to carry the Russian flag this season due to their strong squad and easy Europa League group. In fact, it looks like most of the Russian points will come from the Europa League this season with both Krasnodar and Zenit looking set for good campaigns, while CSKA and Rostov are expected to struggle more in the Champions League.
As if things weren’t exciting enough, both CSKA and Krasnodar have been matched up against French teams, making the encounters against respectively Monaco and Nice absolutely crucial for the Russian coefficient score.
Nevertheless, the Russian clubs are off to a good start with the 12/13 season soon to be erased and their promising beginnings to the campaigns, and now it is up to the clubs to get the job done and at least keep sixth place, making the next ambush on the fifth place even easier.

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