Germany vs Italy: Preview and Prediction

By Stefan Altenbach

Germany vs Italy;
Euro 2016: Quarter Finals,
Date: Saturday, July 2, 2016,
Kick-off: 20:00 UK Time,
Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique (Bordeaux).

Germany face familiar foes Italy for their Euro 2016 quarter final clash at the Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux on Saturday night.

Germany had an easy route to the quarter finals so far and are yet to concede a goal in the tournament. They had one off-day against Poland in the second group match. Other than that they looked dominant in all matches. And they looked like a more organized and settled team in the 3-0 win against Slovakia in the round of 16. But there might be slight worries at the rate at which this team is converting scoring chances. Thomas Muller, who topped the scoring charts for Germany in the last two world cups is yet to score a goal. But he hasn’t scored a single goal in Euro 2012 as well.

Italy outfoxed Spain in their round of 16 clash and earned a 2-0 victory to book their place in the quarter finals. Their performance against Spain on Monday is arguably the best in this edition of the tournament so far. Antonio Conte seems to have got every decision right as Italy ended their barren run against Spain in major tournaments. The Azzuri, who qualified to the knockouts as Group E winner, feel to an unexpected defeat against Ireland in their final group game. Other than this they looked solid in rest of the matches.

Germany Team News:

Joachim Low has the luxury of a fully fit squad at his disposal and he is expected to field the same line-up that started in the 3-0 victory over Slovakia.

The likes of Jerome Boateng, Sami Khedira, Mesut Ozil, Mats Hummels and Joshua Kimmich are one booking away from a one-match suspension.

Germany: Predicted Line-up (4-2-3-1)

Neuer – Hector, Hummels, Boateng, Kimmich – Khedira, Kroos – Ozil, Muller, Draxler – Gomez.

Italy Team News:

Thiago Motta is suspended for the quarter final tie against Germany after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament against Spain. While Antonio Candreva is yet to recover from the injury he suffered in the group game against Sweden.

Changes are hardly expected to the squad that started in the 2-0 win over Spain. The likes of Andrea Barzagli, Mattia De Sciglio Leonardo Bonucci, Gianluigi Buffon, Giorgio Chiellini, Daniele De Rossi, Eder, Lorenzo Insigne, Salvatore Sirigu, Simone Zaza and Graziano Pelle are one booking away from missing the next match.

Italy: Predicted line up (3-5-2)

Buffon – Chiellini, Bonucci, Barzagli – Darmian, Giaccherini, De Rossi, Parolo, Florenzi – Eder, Pelle.

Germany vs Italy: Head-to-Head Stats

Germany have a poor record against Italy after tasting defeat in 11 of the 20 encounters between them, while managing 5 wins and 4 draws.

The latest meeting between the two sides was a friendly at Allianz Arena in Munich on 29th March 2016, which Germany won 4-1.

It was Italy who knocked Germany out of Euro 2012 semi-finals with a 2-1 win.

It was again the Italians who eliminated the Germany in front of their home crowd in the semi finals of 2006 World Cup, after scoring two quick goals in the last minutes of added extra time.

The teams also met in the 1996 edition of European Championship, played out a 0-0 stalemate at Old Trafford in their final group match.

Germany vs Italy: Prediction

This is arguably a clash between two tactically sound units and despite Italy’s dominance against Germany in the recent past, we could witness a hard fought battle.

Germany are yet to concede a goal in the tournament and are a team that has the tendency to dominate the possession. While Conte’s team is built on the back of a strong and organized defensive unit, which sacrifice possession to favour quick counter attacks. At the same time, Italy can give away plenty of scoring chances if they take an early lead. Both teams are also dangerous from set piece situations and there may not be any shortage of goals on Saturday evening.

Italy haven’t lost of Germany in their last three meetings in a major tournament and having just broke the shackles against Spain they will be high on confidence. Also they are a team that tend to do well in European Championships and they will provide a tough test for the in-form Germans in the quarter final clash.

It is extremely difficult to separate the two sides, considering their strengths and weaknesses and I believe this could go either ways. Also we might witness extra time and penalties to decide who goes to the semifinal of Euro 2016. I will be backing both teams to score at least one goal at the end of full 90 minutes. And I believe this is the safe way to go about in this tie.