Morocco takes on Equatorial Guinea in a two legged tie, counting for the World Cup 2018 African qualification tournaments. The two sides meet in the second round, with the victor set to qualify for the last round, the group stages.
The home side was struggling a couple of years ago and was under performing badly in Africa, but since 2014 Morocco turned a corner and started playing to their potential. The hosts are in pretty good form lately, though they have not played too many meaningful matches lately. Last time out Morocco won two games against Libya and Tunisia in the African Nations Championship (not African Nations Cup). Now the home side will look to continue the good run of form and qualify for the World Cup, but they have a long way to go and first need to get past today’s opponents.
Equatorial Guinea arguably had their best ever year in 2015 and that was because of the 4th place finish in the African Cup of Nations, which they hosted (after Morocco forfeited hosting the ACN due to Ebola). Equatorial’s Guinea excellent defense and home support allowed them to post wins over Gabon and Tunisia before losing in the semifinals to Ghana and in the bronze final to Congo at penalties, after 120 scoreless minutes. Since then, Equatorial Guinea kept pretty much the same squad and had mixed success, but played the same type of defensive, organized football. The roster is not star sudden by any stretch, but the guys play well together and there are a few difference makers like Insue (Middlesbrough), all of them available today.
Team news: Morocco called up a strong squad lead by the likes of Benatia or El Kaddouri, but they do miss (for different reasons) a lot of recognizable faces and almost all of them are creative players. Belhanda, Boussoufa, Amrabat, Chamakh, Taarabt, Dirar and others have not been called up / are injured, leaving Morocco a bit thin as far as attacking options are concerned. Equatorial Guinea has all its best players available.
Morocco is of course the big favorite in this tie, but Equatorial Guinea is no joke – the visitors are a very solid team, well organized and showcasing good defense, as their excellent road in the Cup of Nations proved. It’s not an easy game for Morocco and considering the fact that they miss many key creative players, they might struggle to score.
The visitors will obviously focus on defense here, it is their usual gameplan. Equatorial Guinea scored 3 goals in the last 7 matches and has 6 unders in a row. Today, away from home against a strong team, they will definitely go with their traditional defensive strategy. I can`t see Equatorial Guinea finding the net, Morocco is just too strong and defends reasonably well. As for the hosts, obviously the main objective is not to concede an away goal, so they will not go all out attack. With a team selection that sees the best players in defense or defensive midfield, Morocco is even more likely to primarely focus on keeping a clean sheet.
International encounters in Africa are usually very low scoring and the odds on the under / over market are generally disproportionate, with the under around 1.50 – 1.60. However, because this match involves a big favorite, the odds set by the bookies on the under are much better and well worth placing a bet on. With all the above factors in mind, my tip here is under 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: Morocco – Equatorial Guinea 1-0.
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