football-observatory
Players with five different nationalities head the rankings for attacking midfielders: France (Allan Saint-Maximin), Germany (Julian Brandt), Belgium (Adnan Januzaj), Spain (Gerard Deulofeu) and England (Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain). The young Tottenham and England prodigy Dele Alli is second among players born in 1996, just ahead of another extraordinary talent: the Croatian Alen Halilović (Gijón, on loan from Barcelona).
Like Halilović, other young players among the most experienced for their age group were loaned during the 2015/16 season or have already been loaned out in the past: Allan Saint-Maximin, Jérémie Boga, Jordon Ibe, Adnan Januzaj, Gerard Deulofeu, Moi Gómez, Rafinha Alcântara, Ross Barkley, as well as Florian Thauvin. For owner clubs, the recourse to loaning for young talents is a way to test their skills in teams with a lower level, with the hope that they will be able to acquire the experience necessary to have a successful career.
Trained by FC Basle, the Swiss, with Kosovan origins, Albian Ajeti is the most experienced among the U19 forwards. He is ranked ahead of another player whose future looks bright: Borja Mayoral (Real Madrid). His enrollment in the Madrid club, where young players generally see little use, may oblige him seek his fortune elsewhere to pursue his career successfully. The case of Álvaro Morata, trained by Real and transferred to Juventus with a buyback clause, is in this sense exemplary.
At the top of the list for other age groups is the German Timo Werner, as well as three full internationals: Divock Origi, Raheem Sterling and Romelu Lukaku. Other footballers having already played for national A-teams feature in the rankings: Rey Manaj, Kingsley Coman, Leroy Sané, Anthony Martial, Ángel Correa, Memphis Depay, Paco Alcácer, Harry Kane and Mauro Icardi.
4. Non big-5 league talents
This section presents the U23 footballers playing outside the five major European championships with the highest values in terms of experience capital per position. Among the youngest age groups, we find numerous footballers whose experience accumulated during career is greater than that of most of their contemporaries playing in big-5 league clubs. This situation reflects the difficulty of getting regular games in the most competitive championships at the start of the career.
No big-5 goalkeeper of the same age has as much experience capital as Bartomiej Dragowski and Yvon Mvogo. Dragowski made his debut in the Polish top division in 2014, when he was only 16 years of age. He immediately became the first choice goalkeeper for Jagiellonia Bialystok, the club which trained him and where he has already played over 50 domestic league matches. He has represented the U21 Polish team.
Born in 1994, Mvogo has already played almost 100 official matches with Young Boys, one of the best Swiss clubs. He has also been selected for the Swiss national team despite fierce competition. He is soon likely to be recruited by a big-5 league team. He should however make sure he does not jump the gun. He should take his time to choose a club that will sign him as a first choice. If this is not the case, given the longevity of goalkeepers’ careers, it would be wiser for him to wait a little longer.
In Europe, no centre back born in 1996 has as much experience capital as Jairo Riedewald. Three days before his 19th birthday, the Ajax player made his debut in the Dutch national A-team. He was 17 years and three months old when he first played in the Eredivisie with Ajax. He came onto the pitch in the 80th minute when his team was being beaten 0-1 at Kerkhade against Roda. Finally, Ajax won 2-1 thanks to two goals scored by Riedewald. It is hard to imagine a better debut.
Leading the rankings of players born in 1995 is Jason Denayer. Trained according to the methods of one of the best experts in the business, the Frenchman Jean-Marc Guillou, Denayer was quickly recruited by Manchester City. The English club first loaned him to Celtic Glasgow and then again to Galatasaray. Time will tell if the Belgian international will be able to successfully establish himself in his home club.
The experience capital of two full backs is greater than that of all their big-5 league contemporaries playing in the same position: Kevin Diks and Linus Wahlqvist. They both were born in the last three months of the year: October for Diks and November for Wahlqvist. This only makes their statistics more impressive (see Monthly Report n°10).
It would not be surprising to see Kevin Diks join Chelsea, a club with which his home team, Vitesse Arnhem, enjoys a privileged relationship. As for Linus Wahlqvist, his quality performances have already been rewarded with two caps for the Swedish national A-team. After Euro 2016, it is a likely bet that he will be transferred to a club participating in a wealthier and more competitive league than the Swedish top division championship.
Four players stand out among the central midfielders born in 1997. Their experience capital is greater than any big-5 league footballer of the same position born in the same year: Rúben Neves (Porto), Youri Tielemans (Anderlecht), Renato Sanches (Benfica) and Dragoș Nedelcu (Viitorul Constanța). The level of experience of Neves and Tielemans is particularly impressive: it is even greater than the highest values measured for big-5 league players born in 1996.
The experience capital of Riechedly Bazoer is also superior to any big-5 league central midfielder born in the same year. The Ajax player made his debut in the Dutch national A-team one month after having celebrated his 19th birthday. Another precocious talent to follow closely is Tonny Vilhena. His departure to a big-5 club appears very likely during the 2016 summer transfer window. His contract with Feyenoord runs out next June and clubs interested in his services could recruit him without having to pay a transfer fee.
The only attacking midfielder whose experience capital is greater than any other big-5 league player of the same age and position is Ante Ćorić. Aged 19, he has already played more than 50 matches in the best performing Croatian club: Dinamo Zagreb. He also has had a Champions League experience and has already been selected to play for the U21 Croatian side. His compatriot from Hajduk Split, Nikola Vlašić, also has a bright future to look forward to.
The rankings also include other talents who will probably soon be recruited by teams from the five major European leagues. The most experienced attacking midfielder among those born in 1994, Lazar Marković, has already played in the English Premier League. His home club, Liverpool, lent him to Fenerbahçe for the 2015/16 season. Another footballer playing in Turkey, Kerim Frei, has already had the chance to play in the Premier League at the start of his career.
One player stands out clearly from other forwards: Breel Embolo. An undeniable FC Basle first team mainstay, the Swiss with Cameroon origins is also a key player in the Swiss national A-team. His experience capital is greater than all big-5 league forward born in 1997. He would also be ranked fourth among the players born in 1996. He has been on the radar of numerous top level European clubs and his transfer fee will probably be in the tens of millions of euro.
Other players born in 1997 have accumulated more experience than any forward in the five major European championships: Enes Ünal (NAC Breda, on loan from Manchester City), David Kownacki (Lech Poznań), Xande Silva (Vitória Guimarães) and Luka Jović (Benfica). The latter was recruited by the Portuguese side in January 2016 from Red Star of Belgrade. Andrei Ivan (Craiova) and Sander Svendsen (Molde) are also destined for top level careers.
5. Stastistics at the service of recruitment
The experience capital method developed by the CIES Football Observatory research group provides the basis for the setting up of an efficient talent spotting system. With an economy of means, it firstly allows teams covering a large number of countries. Professional clubs can thus hope to outflank the competition even if they do not have a fully-fledged recruitment structure.
Moreover, the approach presented in this study permits the pinpointing of countries where footballers are generally given a sufficient playing time allowing them to fully develop their potential (see also Monthly Report n°13). The success of a career in as competitive an environment as football depends indeed on the context in which the player finds himself as much as his intrinsic talent.
Finally, the method of experience capital allows clubs to optimise their approach regarding transfers by considerably reducing the risks inherent in such operations, from both the sporting and economic point of view. For recruiting clubs, there is indeed no better guarantee than signing footballers who have had the opportunity to play as often as possible at the highest possible level taking into account their age and talent.
Our research team is at the service of clubs interested in finding out more about the practical modalities of implementing a talent spotting system of this kind.
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