football-observatory
Drs Raffaele Poli, Loïc Ravenel and Roger Besson
1. Introduction
Playing numerous games during the first years of a professional career is an essential condition in order to be able to compete in the top level leagues worldwide. As a continuation of the analysis published in February 2015, this Monthly Report presents the experience capital approach developed by the CIES Football Observatory to identify players most likely to succeed in their career.
The paper first highlights the crucial role played by competitions outside of the big-5 leagues in the sporting development of footballers present in the latter championships. Indeed, only a small minority of footballers playing in the five major European competitions have never taken part in other leagues from the beginning of their adult career up until their 23rd birthday.
We go then on to explain the capital experience method and we highlight the average values measured for players of the big-5 leagues. Within this framework, we list the young footballers who are currently part of these championships with the highest values for experience. Finally, we review the most experienced U23 footballers among those currently playing in 26 other top division leagues of UEFA member associations.
2. The importance of playing
Current big-5 league footballers played on average 93.9 domestic league matches since the start of their professional career up until the semester preceding their 23rd birthday. The average number of matches played is 11.1 before 19 years of age, 26.8 before 20, 46.9 before 21, 69.7 before 22 and 93.9 before 23. B-team games are also included.
Generally speaking, forwards start their professional career earlier than footballers in other positions. They are thus likely to play a greater number of matches for each age threshold up until 23. At the other extreme, goalkeepers are fielded less during the first years of their career. Indeed, for this position, experience is more important than physical fitness. This also holds true, to a lesser extent, for defenders.
Among players aged 23 or over currently under contract with big-5 league clubs, only 5.4% have always played in teams taking part in these championships between the start of the professional career and the semester preceding their 23rd birthday. This percentage remains limited also by considering that footballers who played for B-teams of big-5 league clubs spent their entire career in the five major European championships: 16.6%.
The percentage of footballers having always played in the top leagues is particularly low among goalkeepers (3.3%). For other positions, this figure is between 5 and 6%. Even by including footballers who always played for big-5 league clubs but participated in B-team matches, the proportion of those who spent their entire career in the most competitive championships is low: between 11.6% for forwards and 18.7% for midfielders.
This analysis illustrates the crucial role of leagues outside the big-5 in the development of players’ careers. This holds true also for the most talented footballers. This finding suggests that the optimisation of the environment within which to promote talents goes hand in hand with partnerships and strategic alliances between teams of different levels.
Instead of recruiting a plethora of young talents who will never get their chance at the highest level, and in the interests of both the game and the players themselves, the wealthiest teams would do better to cooperate in a healthy and united manner with those of lesser means. This would permit the more regular fielding of talents since the very beginning of their adult career, which would give them the opportunity to fully develop their skills.
3. The experience capital method
The notion of experience capital refers to matches played in adult championships up until 23 years of age. This age is also taken into account by FIFA for the payment of training compensation when a first professional contract is signed.
To calculate experience capital, we attribute different values to matches according to an exclusive classification method that takes into account the performance of national association representatives in European club competitions, the division of the employer club in the domestic league and results achieved.
For extra-European countries, the value of matches was established according to correspondences made with European associations. For example, all other things being equal, a Brazilian top division match is equivalent to one in the top Portuguese league. This method allows us to compare the level of the experience gained by players on an international basis.
The analysis of the average experience capital of big-5 league players is also useful in establishing thresholds above which players from outside these championships have a concrete possibility of successfully joining the five major European competitions in the near future. This analysis indicates that in order to be able to cope with big-5 league demands, midfielders and forwards need to accumulate more experience capital from the outset of their career than defenders and goalkeepers.
Hereafter, we present the five big-5 league players with the highest values for experience capital per position and year of birth. Among them are several players that are likely to leave their mark on the history of football. Despite their tender years, quite a number of them are already full internationals.
In the rankings for goalkeepers are notably two who were born in 1999: Gianluigi Donnarumma (Milan) and Alban Lafont (Toulouse). Our analysis also allows us to highlight goalkeepers whose experience capital is well above the average measured for all big-5 league goalkeepers at the same age: Mouez Hassan (Nice), Paul Nardi (Monaco), Pau López (Espanyol), Jan Oblak (Atlético Madrid), Timo Horn (Cologne), Alphonse Aréola (Villarreal, on loan from Paris St-Germain), Loris Karius (Mainz) and Jack Butland (Stoke).
Precocious players are also numerous among centre backs. Three of the five most experienced central defenders according to year of birth are playing in Spain: Jorge Meré (Gijón), Aymeric Laporte (Bilbao) and Raphaël Varane (Real Madrid). The two other footballers heading the rankings are also on their way to pursuing a top flight career: Jonathan Tah (Bayer Leverkusen) and Alessio Romagnoli (Milan).
Among the most experienced young centre backs, similar to Raphaël Varane and Jonathan Tah, are several other players who have already played in national A-teams: Andreas Christensen (Danemark), José Giménez (Uruguay), Tin Jedvaj (Croatia), Patrick McNair (Northern Ireland), Marquinhos Aoás (Brazil), Kurt Zouma (France), John Stones (England), Karim Rekik (Netherlands), Matija Nastasić (Serbia), John Brooks (United States) and Antonio Rüdiger (Germany).
The five full backs at the top of the experience rankings play in clubs that are generally in the first half of the table in their respective league: Villareal (Adrián Marín), Everton (Brendan Galloway), Manchester United (Luke Shaw), Borussia Dortmund (Matthias Ginter) and Rome (Lucas Digne). However, with the exception of Adrián Marín, none of these players were trained in the youth academy of their employer club.
The greatest merit in the blossoming of these talents goes to Milton Keynes for Galloway, Southampton for Shaw, Freiburg for Ginter and Lille for Digne. Despite their young age, most of the players at the top of the experience rankings have been already the object of at least one transfer. This observation highlights the process of intensification of the mobility of the most promising players from a very early age (see Monthly Report n°13).
The list of big-5 league central midfielders with the most experience according to year of birth is impressive: Amadou Diawara, Danilo Barbosa, Adrien Rabiot, Mateo Kovačić and Paul Pogba. As their collegues ahead of them, players ranked in second position will also probably be future World Cup participants: Assane Dioussé (Senegal), Mahmoud Dahoud, Leon Goretzka and Emre Can (Germany), as well as Geoffrey Kondogbia (France).
None of the five central midfielders in the five top positions of the experience rankings playing in Serie A clubs is Italian: Amadou Diawara (Guinea), Assane Dioussé (Senegal), Godfred Donsah (Ghana), Paul Pogba (France) and Geoffrey Kondogbia (France). This observation confirms the reticence of clubs from the Peninsula to give young nationals their chance (see Monthly Report n°13).
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