MLS CUP 2015 ; CREW SC AND TIMBERS PEAKING AT RIGHT TIME

The 2015 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs began with 12 teams vying for the ultimate prize. With the month of November now firmly in the rear view mirror, just two are left and both find themselves on the cusp of a championship.

To get to where they’re currently positioned, both Columbus Crew SC and the Portland Timbers have had similar experiences in what has been perhaps the most exciting postseason in league history. The two needed extra time at distinct points during these playoffs in order to stay alive.

For the Timbers, it came in their opening round match with Sporting Kansas City. Not only did they trail 2-1 during the extra 30 minutes and needed a 118th minute equalizer from super sub Maximiliano Urruti, but were also on the verge of elimination in the ensuing penalty shootout. A successful PK from SKC’s Saad Abdul-Salaam in the ninth round would see his side through. But he hit both posts, and two rounds later goalkeeper Adam Larsen Kwarasey would save his Sporting counterpart Jon Kempin and the Timbers would survive in pulse-pounding fashion.

The Black and Gold had to play an extra time period after their Eastern Conference semifinal showdown with the Montreal Impact was tied 3-3 through two legs with both teams notching a single away goal. It was then that Crew SC forward Kei Kamara proved why he’s a candidate for the league MVP this year. He tucked in a perfectly placed header that beat Montreal’s Evan Bush far post in the 111th minute to put his team ahead and send them through to the next round.

Both have never trailed on aggregate since.

The Timbers played the Vancouver Whitecaps to a scoreless draw in the first leg of the Western Conference semifinals and beat them 2-0 in the second. Against FC Dallas in the conference finals, the club would win 5-3 on aggregate after emerging from the first leg at Providence Park with a 3-1 victory.

For Crew SC, they would successfully defend home turf with a 2-0 triumph over the New York Red Bulls in the first leg of the Eastern Conference finals. A week later at Red Bull Arena, they survived a late onslaught which led to a second half stoppage time goal from Anatole Abang and a near equalizer from Bradley Wright-Phillips that trickled off the post instead. Shortly thereafter, the final whistle was blown and Columbus found themselves celebrating their first conference title in seven years.

MLS CUP 2015: COLUMBUS CREW SC AND PORTLAND TIMBERS PEAKING AT RIGHT TIME

In sports, they say it’s good to be at your best when it matters. You don’t want to get off to a scorching start only to be ice cold down the stretch. Just ask DC United, who looked to be a possible Supporters’ Shield candidate early on in the year. However, they ended the regular season with a 3-6-1 stretch through their final ten games that included a 5-0 blowout loss at the hands of Crew SC in the season finale. They would get the four seed in the east and fall to the Red Bulls in the conference semifinals.

The same could be said of Vancouver out West. For most of the season, they were the class of the conference. Much like DC, though, they weren’t exactly in scintillating form late in the year. The club’s 3-5-2 mark over their final ten games saw them finish second behind FC Dallas. Then they proceeded to turn in a fairly listless performance against the Timbers in the conference semis.

Contrast this with the two MLS Cup finalists set to do battle on Sunday at a sold out MAPFRE Stadium in Columbus (4 PM, ESPN). Crew SC finished the 2015 regular season with six wins out of their final nine games, while for the Timbers four of their last five outings heading into the playoffs resulted in the team picking up the full three points.

Of particular interest is Portland’s away form, especially given that they will be contesting the MLS Cup Final away from the friendly confines of Providence Park. Of those four wins mentioned above, three of them were on the road. That included a shocking 5-2 win over the LA Galaxy that provided a hint as to the trajectory of those two teams at the time. Overall, the Timbers finished with a 7-8-2 road record which was second best in the league. And Crew SC fans are probably well-aware of the result of the two teams’ only meeting of the year, a 2-1 win for Portland in Columbus on September 26th.

Both these teams are among the league’s best at creating chances. In fact, during the regular season Portland led the league in this category with 377 while Columbus was not too far behind in second place with 369. But what the Timbers struggled with throughout most of the regular season was scoring off those chances with just 10.9 percent of them resulting in goals. Compare that to Crew SC who saw 15.7 percent of their key passes finding the net. This is also evident in the 50-32 edge the Black and Gold had over Portland in assists on the year.

Those numbers skyrocketed in the teams’ final few games and was a defining characteristic of why they’ve made it this far. In Crew SC’s final four wins of 2015, they scored 11 goals off of 36 chances created, a whopping 30.56 percent success rate. The Timbers weren’t too far behind with 26.7 percent of their chances resulting in goals, including a 33.3 percent success rate in that emphatic victory over the Galaxy.

For the most part, that trend has continued in the postseason, particularly in Portland’s case. The Timbers goals/chances created ratio currently stands at 18.75 percent, nearly double the rate they had during the regular season. Dynamic playmaker Darlington Nagbe, fresh off his first few caps for the USMNT, was particularly potent in the club’s 3-1 win over FC Dallas in the first leg of the Western Conference finals. He finished with five of the Timbers nine key passes that night.

15 percent of Crew SC’s chances at net have resulted in goals during the postseason, which is in line with their regular season output. However, in the two games that essentially got them here (second leg against Montreal, first leg against New York), they tallied five goals off 29 chances created, good enough for a 17.2 percent ratio. Black and Gold attacking midfielder Federico Higuain had his coming out party from a chance generation standpoint in leg one against the Red Bulls as he ended up with six of the club’s 13 in the 2-0 win.

The increased offensive output that come via the opportunities at net these teams manufacture is just one of many factors indicating that they’re in the midst of their best soccer of the year. Whoever is able to successfully continue this trend most effectively will put themselves into the best position to hoist MLS Cup 2015 when all is set and done.


FIRE CONTRACT OPTIONS BREAKDOWN

Due to Major League Soccer’s long season and playoff system, many teams have already begun making roster cuts and working on contracts for 2016 before MLS Cup is even played. With preseason starting in January, the offseason moves will come quickly in the next few weeks – especially for rebuilding teams like Chicago Fire, who declined some contract options, and exercised some others. Let’s take a look at who might not be back in 2016 first.

Options Declined:

Adailton, Jon Busch, Razvan Cocis, Greg Cochrane, Jason  Johnson, Alec Kann, Jeff Larentowicz, Lovel Palmer and Chris Ritter have all been told that they will not be back at the same salary number next season.  In addition, Daneil Cyrus’s loan is expired and he will likely not be back.

Three other players’ contracts are expired with no option year after 2015 and they are Mike Magee, Ty Harden, and Matt Watson.

What does this mean?  For starters, Busch, Larentowicz, Magee, and Harden are all eligible to test the new free agent market in MLS.  It’s plausible that Larentowicz or Magee may find teams willing to pay them what they want as free agents, but both are on the wrong side of 30 and only Magee has spoken out about the possibility of making this move.  Larentowicz and Busch may also be re-signed at a lower salary, as both are popular with fans as well as in the locker room.

Matt Watson and Lovel Palmer will both be available in the Re-entry draft, and both are the type of utility player who may be picked in that draft.  Watson’s salary cap hit is under $100,000 so he would be especially useful to some teams.

As for the other declined players, they fall into two categories:  “Not good enough” and “Too Expensive” (in MLS terms).

“Not Good Enough”:  Jason Johnson, Greg Cochrane, Alec Kann, Chris Ritter

None of these players have impressed in their time in Chicago.  They have been utility men at best and roster filler at worst. Ritter may be the most interesting cut here.  He is a homegrown player but at 25 years old, he may have hit his plateau at the MLS reserve level.  Johnson is another one-time prospect who seems to have hit a ceiling.  The 13th pick in the 2013 MLS Superdraft will probably be looking for another club.

“Too Expensive (relatively speaking)”:  Adailton, Razvan Cocis

Though their salaries of just about $250,000 each are tiny in the scheme of world football, these veterans just take up too much of the MLS salary cap to justify keeping around.  Though both offer something to the team, and both have expressed how much they enjoy living in the USA, they will need to take a pay cut to return next season.  Cocis in particular would have to take a big cut, due to the presence of younger players such as Matt Polster and Mike Stephens in center midfield.

Which brings us to the four players who Chicago has re-upped with.

Options Exercised: Kingsley Bryce, Patrick Doody, Matt Polster, and Harry Shipp.

Bryce and Doody are at the league minimum and Doody looked good in limited action in MLS.  He also led St. Louis in assists from the left back position, which is a promising sign.  Polster and Shipp are the future of the Fire.  Polster appears to have more upside, but both players may benefit from the developmental focus of new coach Veljko Paunovic.  Polster in particular could be the midfield presence Chicago has struggled to find ever since the loss of Chris Armas.

These four players will join the group who are already under contract for 2016.  Barring any trades, transfers, or other shenanigans, here is your 2016 Chicago Fire, as of December 1, 2015:

David Accam, Kingsley Bryce, Patrick Doody, Collin Fernandez, Eric Gehrig, Gilberto, Kennedy Igboananike, Sean Johnson, Joevin Jones, Patrick Nyarko, Matt Polster, Harry Shipp, Michael Stephens.

With only 13 players under contract for next season, there will be plenty of room for Veljko Paunovic and Nelson Rodriguez to put their stamp on this roster.  Stay tuned, #cf97 nation, it’s going to be a busy offseason.