Aguero's Wembley way

Our tipster Andy Schooler is backing Sergio Aguero to fire Manchester City past Everton and into the Capital One Cup final.

Manchester City v Everton (1945 GMT)

In a season that has thrown up the weird and wonderful, Everton becoming the first team in a year to shut out Manchester City at the Etihad has to be up there in the unlikely pile.

They've been a defensive car crash this season, more evidence being produced against Swansea on Sunday, but just two weeks after that clean sheet they return to the scene with a 2-1 lead in this semi-final tie, knowing a replica result will see them into their first League Cup final since 1984.

Roberto Martinez will doubtless have tried to convince his players to take confidence from that goalless Premier League draw but deep down they will all know they were a tad fortunate. City had a cast-iron penalty claim turned down in the last minute, while had Tim Howard not enjoyed one of his better days they'd have already been trailing at that stage.

Howard won't be in goal for this clash (both second-string keepers will start) but of more significance is the fact that Muhamed Besic and Kevin Mirallas will be missing for the visitors. They have been two of the Toffees' more influential players in recent weeks and even the return of Phil Jagielka, Seamus Coleman and James McCarthy seems unlikely to make up for their absence.

City have plenty of injury issues of their own right now, too, although most are long-term problems they are learning to deal with.

Vincent Kompany is still among those - for another two weeks according to boss Manuel Pellegrini - and as long as he remains missing from the backline, opponents will fancy their chances of finding the net.

With Everton having proved they have plenty of goals in their locker, both teams to score has to be a strong consideration for those happy to play at a short price. It's been a rich mine of profit in Everton games over the past few months and I wouldn't be put off by the recent 0-0 between the sides.

However, I prefer to focus in on Sergio Aguero, a player who appears to have be getting back to his lethal best.

Two more goals for the Argentine saved his team at West Ham on Saturday and took his tally in 2016 to six from six games.

Critics will point out the two games in which he's failed to score in January have been against Everton but I remain convinced he's in the form to really trouble a defensive unit low on confidence and particularly error-prone. Aguero has delivered on the big stage in the past when he's been needed - think some of the holes he's dug them out of in the Champions League - and with a place at Wembley at stake he should be buzzing again here.

Aguero has the pace to be a constant menace on the break - the way Everton conceded in the first leg and have done far too often this season for their liking thanks to a propensity to over-commit in search of goals. Admittedly this has happened more regularly in home matches but in their last away outing the Merseysiders conceded three times at Chelsea and they will not be relishing the challenge of facing Aguero.

City's star man is also a proven deadly finisher - the best in the Premier League in my view - and so I'm sure they will be those happy to back him at 14/5 to score two or more here.

Take out the goalless draw I've already referred to and City have averaged three goals a game at home in the league this season, showing how dangerous they can be at the Etihad. Their problems have been away from home and I don't see Everton, the way they set up these days, being able to restrict the chances for Ageuro and co.

The 6/4 Price Boost offered by Sky Bet against Aguero finding the net in a home victory looks too good to be missed.

For those seeking a bigger price, I'll repeat my first-leg view that Nicolas Otamendi is too big in the anytime scorer market.

He's a standout 12/1 at one firm which given Everton's poor record in defending set pieces this season has to be worth a second glance.

The Argentine had a great chance to head his side in front in the first leg only to nod wide and I'd have thought he'll get at least one more in this contest.

From an Everton viewpoint, their first-leg score Ramiro Funes Mori has now scored three times in his last 13 games - a decent record for a centre-back - but the return of Jagielka and Coleman means he is not a guaranteed starter.

Verdict: Man City 3 Everton 1

Opta facts:

• Romelu Lukaku has netted four goals in five League Cup appearances this season.
• In the first leg, Jesus Navas scored his first goal for Manchester City since September 2014 (v Sheffield Wednesday), a wait of 66 games in all competitions for the club.
• Everton have won three successive away games in the League Cup this season, after losing each of their previous three. However, the Toffees have lost five of their last six away games in this competition to sides from the Premier League.
• City have won five of their last six home games in the League Cup, losing the other 2-0 to Newcastle. In those games, they've scored 27 times (4.5 per game).